In the last few weeks, Nate Silver’s site fivethirtyeight.com has shifted stance from Hillary Clinton Will Win to Maybe We Ought To Worry After All.
You can see the progression here (since the beginning of August):
- 8/5: Election Update: Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls
- 8/16: Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Clear And Steady
- 9/1: Election Update: As The Race Tightens, Don’t Assume The Electoral College Will Save Clinton
- 9/16: Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week
What I find most disturbing is that his map of the US is much less ambiguous than mine, and mine called it for Trump back in June, based on the numbers I saw coming out of the primaries. I’ve had people blowing me off consistently, with placating comments about how primary numbers can’t predict outcomes. Well, maybe that’s true, but I said it would be a close race back then, and I am sticking to those guns today. Continue reading “What if I’m right?”