Four years ago today I had fear in the pit of my stomach. I had spent the entire year watching people who I thought were sensible dissolve into a puddle of insanity over almost 40 years of dedicated Republican propaganda prepare to vote away our Democracy. Continue reading “Zero…”
The New York Times has been sending out so-called impeachment briefings every morning and evening. Tonight was no exception. At the end of the message they asked if there was anything we want to see.
I responded. Continue reading “Well, there it is…”
I’m almost done compiling data on the senate races from 2006-2016. This stuff takes time because I’m using at least three sources (including the Federal Election Commission) and scouring them for the data is a royal PITA.
When I’m done, there’ll be a better list of who to direct those precious support dollars, assuming you want a blue candidate to win.That’s 10 years’ worth of data, and it’s proving to be relatively reliable. If I have the vote counts for all the republicans and all the democrats who voted in the primary, regardless of their candidate selection, I can predict the outcome of the general, with an error ratio of around 4. Continue reading “Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1)”
And from here on out, I’m live on Facebook, and will post updates below.
I’m devoting all my time right now to updating my spreadsheet.
When I’ve finished, I’ll post my results to 270towin.com, but there’s no point in putting the link up now.
ETA: 1:43am EST – http://www.270towin.com/maps/36n0N (My best guess as of this moment.)
Folks, I don’t think I can watch anymore. I’m going to go to bed and try to sleep.
I just want people to remember, when they look back at tonight, that the polls this year were WORTHLESS. They lied, just the way I said they would.
They didn’t take into account independents, and that’s where they went wrong. The pundits won’t admit this fault in the logic, but that’s where it lies.
And for the record, yes, Jill Stein did have an effect. She cost us Pennsylvania, if it comes down to the wire in that state.
In the last few weeks, Nate Silver’s site fivethirtyeight.com has shifted stance from Hillary Clinton Will Win to Maybe We Ought To Worry After All.
You can see the progression here (since the beginning of August):
- 8/5: Election Update: Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls
- 8/16: Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Clear And Steady
- 9/1: Election Update: As The Race Tightens, Don’t Assume The Electoral College Will Save Clinton
- 9/16: Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week
What I find most disturbing is that his map of the US is much less ambiguous than mine, and mine called it for Trump back in June, based on the numbers I saw coming out of the primaries. I’ve had people blowing me off consistently, with placating comments about how primary numbers can’t predict outcomes. Well, maybe that’s true, but I said it would be a close race back then, and I am sticking to those guns today. Continue reading “What if I’m right?”