Cassandra’s Lists

My “Cassie’s List” compilations, which include the historic voting data that matters to ME from the last six election cycles for the U.S. Presidency Senate and House seats, as well as the State Governors.

Presidential Election Statistics/Predictions

Down-Ballot Elections – Governor/Senate/House Composition/Predictions and Historical Data (2006-2020)

This content is derived from a number of sources, and may be subject to change depending on where we are in the election process.

The reason I started these lists: When Antonin Scalia handed down the majority decision for Shelby County v. Holder in 2013 and destroyed the Voting Rights Act of 1965, I knew we would see a massive change in the voting numbers as Jim Crow voter obstruction became widespread again but I had no way to prove I was right without tracking the actual vote counts in the primaries and general elections.

That work was made more difficult because until fairly recently, primaries were often back-room affairs or managed via convention/committee, and no statistics were available to compare.

With the Presidential elections, I initially restricted my calculations to the numbers at the start of an eight-year election cycle, determining that the best comparison was when the office holder could not seek reelection. That data was available for Clinton, Bush, and Obama. The 2014 election, a midterm, was the first to take place after the Shelby v. Holder decision, and the change in voting was striking. Not only were we dealing with the damage to the census, gerrymandering, and other voting obstruction (voter ID laws and restrictions in place) that challenged the identities of hundreds of thousands of legitimate voters on the basis of name-change due to marriage or divorce, a lack of legal birth certificate, or a driver’s license.

The Down-Ballot list came second, and only because it was clear from the way elections were run that there had to be more sources for statistics than just comparing Presidential elections. The House elections in particular show the flip after 2012, while the Presidential elections show the damage in the turnout. The basic assumption: There is a core to both the Democratic and Republican voting blocs, which only becomes visible with comparison over years. Those numbers aren’t what matter. It’s the remaining 18 million voters who make all the decisions for the country. And when some of those voters are skimmed off the top for either the Green or the Libertarian parties, the major parties suffer damage, in sufficient quantities that they will cost candidates their seats.

Meanwhile, there are NO Greens or Libertarians in office who didn’t get there riding the coat-tails of the main parties. Anyone who thinks that a presidential vote for ANY of the dozen or so so-called Third Party candidates fails basic civics and an understanding of the 12th Amendment to the Constitution.

Further compounding the damage, Russian interference in the form of hacking mail servers and trolling social media made a fertile ground for the Republican to steal power in what has been the most corrupt administration since Herbert Hoover left office.

In her blistering dissent, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg stated. “The sad irony of today’s decision lies in its utter failure to grasp why the [Voting Rights Act] has proven effective … Throwing out preclearance when it has worked and is continuing to work to stop discriminatory changes is like throwing away your umbrella in a rainstorm because you are not getting wet.”

On Friday, September 18, 2020, Justice Ginsburg died. We will see the fruit of Mitch McConnell’s labors in the next 106 days as Republicans barrel down toward what is likely to be historic turnout, and they will ram through a Conservative replacement for RBG who will ensure that rich white Christian men will control the lives of generations of people who are none of these things.

I suggest if you still don’t get it, now is the time to learn how Presidential elections work. If you haven’t checked your registration recently, use The National Association of Secretaries of State (https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote) to connect to your local Board of Elections and ensure that you are still registered. If you can assist someone else with registration, do it. If you can afford to donate to an election campaign do that, too. Deadlines for requesting an absentee ballot are already passing, and such ballots are not available in all states. Every jurisdiction differs. Don’t trust an online meme you saw on Facebook or Twitter to tell you what you can do to vote. Check with your State’s Board of Elections.

There are 435 House and 33 Senate seats available this year. We have an opportunity to flip the Senate back to Blue and regain a filibuster-proof majority, which we haven’t had since Jimmy Carter was President, but we can’t do that if you don’t VOTE.

The statistics don’t lie. Democratic turnout is already higher this year than it was four years ago, when Hillary Clinton ran for President, won the nomination, and lost to the Electoral College. We have one last chance to stop this madness and we are locked down because President Donald J. Trump decided in January of this year that a deadly virus was fine as long as it killed Democrats.

Early voting for the 2020 Election has already started. Your only job is to show up and ensure that you vote for the Democratic candidates on your ballot. Any other vote is a concession that Republicans are fit to govern in this country. This is a lie and I will call you on it.