I’ve got the tentative names and numbers updated for Illinois’ Primaries, but the big thing: I’m thinking we’re going to see the Governor’s office flip from Red to Blue this year.
I’m late on this because of really annoying weather related stupidity in the Metro DC area. Sorry about that.
At the moment, Pritzker is outgunning Rauner by a clear 2:1 margin, and I’d call that pretty decisive.
As for the rest of the races, going in, I had predicted two House seats flipping from Blue to Red. 8th and 10th both looked weak to me based on prior years and if the 12th flips the other way, that will help reduce the net loss to one Blue seat instead of two, but with most incumbents running unopposed, there’s no real way to know for sure.
When the rest of the numbers are final, I’ll go back and compare with prior midterms and see if the numbers I’m looking at seem low or high, and that will give me a better handle, but it’s near impossible to know for sure without seeing actual turnout. Unfortunately, that moves Illinois from Likely Reliable to Not Reliable in my view.
Now, what I haven’t done yet is compare the numbers precinct by precinct for each of these “unopposed” races, because there isn’t enough time in my day to do that sort of analysis and still hold down a full-time job, but if you want to work it out for yourself, you’re welcome to do the calculations. I’m getting tonight’s numbers from the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/20/us/elections/results-illinois-primary-elections.html) and they pull theirs from AP, so I’m reasonably sure what I see is what we’ll get.
Meanwhile, Conor Lamb’s win (PA 18th) is still being contested, so no updates there. And because he ran under the old districting, and the Supreme Court upheld the new district lines, his current win is potentially irrelevant, since the numbers won’t add up the same way when PA has it’s official Primary in May.
Unless something earth shattering happens between now and the next day or so, I’ll likely certify the numbers for Illinois on or around Friday. I’d say the state’s up in the air for now. I’ll post an update when I think the Illinois numbers are complete.
In the PA 18th special election: Saccone conceded tonight (Wednesday, 3/21), and that makes Conor Lamb official, once he’s sworn in. He’ll go through the regular primary process when PA is up in a couple of weeks.
I’ve updated the results for Illinois as well, with one name changes and most totals rising a smidgen since Tuesday. If the numbers aren’t final, they’re close.
Based on comparison to 2014, I’d say we might see a net gain in the House of as many as four Blue seats, but with all the candidates running “unopposed” there’s just no way to know for sure. Also based on the numbers so far, chances are reasonably good the Governor’s seat will also flip to Blue.
Going to do a wholesale revision of numbers on Sunday, with the Texas races, because those numbers should be final by now.
Here’s the link to Cassandra’s List again, for easy finding.