Well, now that’s over with, I can say…shoot. Yeah, there were way more Democrats running this year, and yes, definitely, voter turnout was greater across the board, for those races where there was competition, anyway.
But…and this is a BIG but…in almost all cases the votes were almost exclusively increases in the same proportion in each race, so that the total votes on either side were nearly equal in the increases.
I’d say that doesn’t bode well at all for a blue wave in Texas. Yes, more competition, but in the end, there are maybe four flipable seats in the House (three from red to blue). The problem is, we let the GOP run roughshod over us in 2012, 2014, and 2016. We haven’t got much of a chance of recovery because when the state redistricted, the majority of new seats went red and I think they’re going to stay that way.
I’d love to be proven wrong, though, so if you use the stats and push money into the closest Democratic races, maybe you’ll be the change you want to see happen.
I’m not excited. I’m scared. I want Ted Cruz to go. I want Greg Abbott to go, too. And I don’t think it’s going to happen.
There may be additional vote tweaking before I declare the numbers final, and there will be a run-off for a handful of contested seats on both sides of the aisle. I’ll update the numbers in about a week, when the races are certified. And that’s the way this will go throughout the year. Preliminary numbers will be up the day after the election, and tweaking will happen once all the votes are certified.
Next Primary: March 20 (Illinois)