FiveThirtyEight: Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking: 10 questions as the stretch run begins.
A few weeks back I got into a fight with people on a friend’s FB wall over the relative value of polls. After the smackdown, I retreated to my corner to wait out the holidays and take a break.
This evening, I caught a glimpse of the headline above, which is vindication of a sort, and also just a bit terrifying.
Embedded in the article, under Question 5. “Which states shape up as most important?” are references to the Big Ten Conference (Big Ten) and Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) states. (Links via Wikipedia.)
| ACC | 538 | TCT | Big Ten | 538 | TCT | Total EC Votes – ACC |
Total EC Votes – Big Ten |
| Florida++ | Red | Red | Illinois | Blue | Blue | 29 | 20 |
| Georgia | Red | Red | Iowa | Red | Red | 16 | 6 |
| Indiana* | Red | Red | Michigan | Blue | Purple | 11 | 16 |
| Kentucky | Red | Red | Minnesota | Blue | Blue | 8 | 10 |
| Maryland** | Blue | Blue | Nebraska | Red | Red | 10 | 5 |
| New York | Blue | Blue | New Jersey | Blue | Blue | 29 | 14 |
| North Carolina | Blue | Purple | Ohio+ | Red | Red | 15 | 18 |
| Pennsylvania* | Blue | Purple | Wisconsin | Blue | Purple | 20 | 10 |
| South Carolina | Red | Red | 9 | ||||
| Virginia | Blue | Red | 13 | ||||
| Subtotals | 538: | 157/102 | TCT: | 103 | 73/83 | Total: | 259 |
* An overlap between the two state lists, so only listed once.
** Yes, Maryland, because it used to be ACC but is now Big Ten. For this purpose, I’m changing it back.
+Updated 10/30/2016 because 538 now shows Ohio as red, as I have from the start.
++Updated 11/1/2016 because 538 now shows Florida as red in Polls Plus, as I have from the start.
Italics: fivethirtyeight.com and I disagree.
So, if 538’s optimistic estimate holds, we’re out of the woods. If my numbers hold, the race will be a LOT closer.
Debates are coming up soon. We’ll see if Trump continues to gain ground, or if Clinton trounces him in a face to face battle.
I’m angling to watch the debates. May (or may not) live blog that night. We’ll see.
Regardless, there’s a lot of similarity between 538 and me, when it comes to where these states fall. Some of his blue states are a lot paler than they should be, and some of my purple states are still debatable.
Two months and a teensy bit to go.