A few weeks back, I got into a fight with people on a friend’s FB wall, over the relative value of polls. After the smackdown, I retreated to my corner to wait out the holidays and take a break.
This evening, I caught a glimpse of the headline above, which is vindication of a sort, and also just a bit terrifying.
|ACC||538||TCT||Big Ten||538||TCT||Total EC Votes – ACC||Total EC Votes – Big Ten|
|New York||Blue||Blue||New Jersey||Blue||Blue||29||14|
* An overlap between the two state lists, so only listed once.
** Yes, Maryland, because it used to be ACC but is now Big Ten. For this purpose, I’m changing it back.
+Updated 10/30/2016 because 538 now shows Ohio as red, as I have from the start.
++Updated 11/1/2016 because 538 now shows Florida as red in Polls Plus, as I have from the start.
Italics: fivethirtyeight.com and I disagree.
So, if 538’s optimistic estimate holds, we’re out of the woods. If my numbers hold, the race will be a LOT closer.
Debates are coming up soon. We’ll see if Trump continues to gain ground, or if Clinton trounces him in a face to face battle.
I’m angling to watch the debates. May (or may not) live blog that night. We’ll see.
Regardless, there’s a lot of similarity between 538 and me, when it comes to where these states fall. Some of his blue states are a lot paler than they should be, and some of my purple states are still debatable.
Two months and a teensy bit to go.