Election 2018: Analysis Complete. Now what? (Part 2)

Election 2018: Analysis Complete. Now what? (Part 2)

In Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1), I introduced the second “Cassie’s List” compilation, which includes all the historic data that matters to ME from the last six election cycles for US Senate and House seats. Unlike the work I did for the Presidential election in 2016, this delves deeper into state politics and shows why some state numbers are better predictors than others.

The list, you may recall, is here:

Cassandra’s List

The data’s complete now, based entirely on the stats published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). I’ve downloaded the PDFs in the event that the current government decides to erase the data, which I can imagine they could do, since they’ve already done it with climate research and other inconvenient truths. Continue reading “Election 2018: Analysis Complete. Now what? (Part 2)”

Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1)

Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1)

I’m almost done compiling data on the senate races from 2006-2016. This stuff takes time because I’m using at least three sources (including the Federal Election Commission) and scouring them for the data is a royal PITA.

When I’m done, there’ll be a better list of who to direct those precious support dollars, assuming you want a blue candidate to win.That’s 10 years’ worth of data, and it’s proving to be relatively reliable. If I have the vote counts for all the republicans and all the democrats who voted in the primary, regardless of their candidate selection, I can predict the outcome of the general, with an error ratio of around 4. Continue reading “Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1)”

Newsflash: What you think is wrong is just the tip of the iceberg…

Newsflash: What you think is wrong is just the tip of the iceberg…

This morning there were a raft of articles like these floating around my corner of the Internet. Continue reading “Newsflash: What you think is wrong is just the tip of the iceberg…”

Inauguration!!!

Inauguration!!!

[eta: Started at 11:35am…]

Going to update this entry as things happen, to save your Friends page. Just click refresh every once in a while!

1. I forgot to buy a paper. Anyone willing to share? I’ll pay, of course!

2. I also need a copy of the concert from Sunday. Will take from any given source. YouTube isn’t one of them.

3. “Hey, hey, Bye Bye!” is just cold. Not saying it ain’t deserved, but still…

4. I can’t stop smiling. Can’t say when I felt like that last.

5. I was afraid when I heard the start of the invocation, but it was well thought out and far more inclusive than I was afraid would be the case.

6. Aretha Franklin ROCKS. And the hat is freaking AWESOME!

7. Just got chills from listening to the musicians playing after Biden’s swearing in. We’re halfway there…

8. The musical blending… amazing. Yo Yo Ma was a joy to watch.

But here’s the thing. In the end he was human and fluffed his line, and he STILL managed to kick Bush’s ass up one street and down the next.

I thought Bush was going to cough up a hairball when he described the importance of the Constitution.

And to all the things I have heard so far today I can say Amen and mean it.

The crowd is immense. And I have lived to see this day.

It isn’t all fixed, but we’re on the way now.

9. At 12:56pm, EST, we pruned our American garden by one Bush. And the crowd broke out in “Hey, hey, Bye Bye!” again. [eta: This was just the helicopter flying him to Andrews. The plane actually took off at 2:01pm or thereabouts. I had it in my head to post but I had pizza in my hands at the time.]

They’re on the way to lunch sign the first official documents right now and we can all breathe a little easier.

10. The signing of the official documents strikes me as awfully similar to an orthodox wedding.

11. Wiki and Google have both failed me. I can’t find actual information about the John Williams composition, and the speech isn’t online yet.

Lunch is here. Time for a break. Back after pizza…

12. “Today would be a good day to commit a crime…anywhere else…” sayeth a friend in response to my observation that there’s a cop every two feet down the parade route on both sides of the street. Sheesh!

13. Pat Robertson likes him. Hey, Mikey!

14. The end of the nukular era, for now. Just realized! (And I’m not alone. Same friend just showed me something similar mere moments ago.)

15. Senator Kennedy removed by stretcher from the luncheon. I have a bad feeling about this… (2:43pm) It would REALLY suck if something bad happened today in the midst of this event.

16. I really REALLY want to see DF in the parade but I need to leave here soon and the parade hasn’t started yet.

17. Oh. AND Senator Byrd. This doesn’t look good for either one of them.

I need to leave now, and will sign off until I get to a location where I can watch the parade. Hoping to catch all of it, but it’s all in the timing. Hoping I don’t hear bad things on the radio before I get home…

See you soon!

Retrieval achieved, our new connection is less lovely that we had at JP’s but I’m in my own place now and I’ve finally finished backing up my laptop so I can do one really big thing while I’m sitting here watching the show, and then get other stuff done.

Parade’s just getting to the review stand. Glad I didn’t wait.

(You’ll notice I’ve picked up with a new post. Decided two couldn’t kill folks.)

More after the computer finishes updating…

A little more than 12 hours to go…

A little more than 12 hours to go…

And I can’t wait for Wednesday.

So excited I can’t stand it anymore, but someone today asked me if I thought we’d see an immediate change. I had to say no. I think the hole’s too deep for an immediate change. I am hoping for some bones, though, and I’m betting, come Wednesday, there will be a change in the air, and more than just the weather at play.

Gonna crash. Tomorrow will definitely be a new day. Stay warm!

01/10/2009: Posty McPostalot says…

01/10/2009: Posty McPostalot says…

Sorry for all the posts – I got an invite to participate in a radio discussion on "Obama’s Washington and the World" from WAMU 88.5, BBC, and PRI, but I haven’t received either the confirmation or denial and I don’t know whether to show up there or not. Very frustrating!

So I keep poking around on the Internet, hoping something will show up in my mailbox or I’ll get a phone call. Either way, I suppose I should go do other stuff and try calling them again in a little while to see if anyone’s got a clue about the guest list. That and have breakfast.

I have the feeling it’s going to be a very long day, regardless…

In 1972…

In 1972…

I was just 9 (my birthday was the day before Election Day that year). I recall staying up to watch (and weep) as my favorite candidate, George McGovern, lost by a landslide to Richard Milhous Nixon. It took years to recover.

In 1976, I was 12 when I worked on the Carter campaign. Somewhere I still have Jimmy Carter letterhead.

Social Studies (and Current Events) were my favorite subjects all through junior high and high school.

Just a day away from my 45th birthday, and I still can’t believe we managed to do this.

As I watch President-Elect Obama’s acceptance speech, I notice that his audience is far more representative of the whole country. I am proud to have supported him through the primary to now. I have a hope that his words are played out in deeds.

According to my web site, we are at T-75 days and counting to the inauguration. A great deal of damage can still be done by our current administration, but what I do know is that there is a day coming when I can say that I support fully and completely whatever our President says we need to do.

We can fix the broken things about our home.

Yes. We can.

I’m just a little late, here, but gotta say it anyway…

I’m just a little late, here, but gotta say it anyway…

We watched It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown on the 1st, because my oldest wasn’t up to watching anything the night before. After it was over, the kids begged to watch You’re NOT Elected, Charlie Brown. Originally, I said it was not as good. I was wrong. I forgot how closely it paralleled the 1972 election (was released just before), and I forgot about the Joe Cool appearance. Most importantly, I laughed harder and longer at that than I did at Great Pumpkin.

You’ve still got a day before the election. Go. Find it and watch. You’ll be enlightened…again.

It is time…

It is time…

On November 4, 2008, assuming you are a citizen of the United States, age 18 or older, you have a responsibility to exercise your right to vote. Your right has been established in many different sections of the United States Constitution.

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

Of course I care who you vote for, but beyond anything else, I care that you exercise your right to vote.

The polls open in less than 8 hours.

Do what you must.

(And, if you’re in my neck of the woods and you want to watch the results come in with company, there’s a brand new sofa and a microwave available for popcorn, plus a big TV and a digital tuner. Come share in the event. You won’t regret it.)

Comments:

LC:
Watch the results? I’m voting, don’t get me wrong, but I’d rather go to a party to have a root canal than to watch the pundits pontificate. To each their own, I suppose. I’ll hear the outcome tomorrow on the all-news radio.

Me:
Well, for the right-minded (left-minded?) person(s), I *could* be convinced to pop in either Dave or The American President. I’m in the mood for something hopeful…

LC:
I wish we lived closer, I’d take you up on that. Hopeful is good.

SC:
Oh, I am SO with you on this one. I swear, I went to the polls today ready to actually hit anyone who came near me w/any sort of politicking. Luckily, there was absolutely no one doing any sort of that thing. Surprising, but refreshing.

CS:
The wife and I have a nice bottle of wine ready for tonight. It’s my favorite kind of reality TV! We’ll be watching PBS so we won’t have to be interrupted with those vital local results (zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz). Forget about congress, we have to tell you who the new Dogcatcher is in South Bubbaburg! Oy!

Theme: Elation by Kaira.