I’ll be honest with you.
I hear that everything looks right.
Speeches are flawless. Tech is working.
People are coming out and apologizing for voting Trump.
I see all of that.
I haven’t seen a single night of the Democratic Convention.
Haven’t listened to a single speech.
Because I won’t believe this nightmare will truly be over until I see that man and all his cronies leave office, until I see Joe Biden sworn in. Continue reading “I’ll be honest…”
Yes, it’s been a while. There’s too much going on locally and at the national level and I’m trying to keep my head above water while I’m clearing stuff out. Follow me on Facebook or Twitter to see what’s going on daily.
This is getting addressed because of something someone said on Facebook, and it’s just easier to lay it all out in a blog post anyway. Continue reading “Special elections don’t predict SQUAT…”
Last week I got into a pissing contest with a couple of liberal fanatics who think the blue wave is real. I called bullshit based on what I’ve seen so far. They asked me to give a best guess scenario for the Senate, based on my research. The results are below, but before we get there, let me remind you just who you’re dealing with here. Continue reading “Endarkenment (Part 2)…”
According to the NY Times, votes should start to roll in at around 8:20. When they’re done, the dust is going to settle and yet another “bellwether” election will be over, but as I’ve said repeatedly, special elections don’t count. They especially don’t count when the weather is horrendous thanks to a nor’easter that’s sweeping up the east coast of the US.
That said, I’ll repeat for the peanut gallery: I don’t trust polls. I trust votes. Continue reading “Election 2018: Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District”
This nugget showed up on a friend’s FB post, which I can now no longer find. Chances are, either the friend decided it had to go, the genius who posted it blocked me, or I blocked him.
At the time, (sometime just after Christmas, I think) I thanked the guy for posting virtually every propaganda-driven talking point Alex Jones and Fox News have shoved into his brain in the name of truth. Here it is, folks. GOP trash talk, all in one convenient comment. Continue reading “Burden of Proof…”
There’s a benefit to following folks I’ve never met anywhere else but FB. Occasionally, someone shows me a bit of the Internet that I’ve missed before, and because it flew under the radar, I didn’t have it available to draw connections.
Today, someone revealed a tiny tip of a much larger iceberg, and now I’ve got the first Dots post in almost seven months. Continue reading “Connecting the Dots, Part 7…”
In Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1), I introduced the second “Cassie’s List” compilation, which includes all the historic data that matters to ME from the last six election cycles for US Senate and House seats. Unlike the work I did for the Presidential election in 2016, this delves deeper into state politics and shows why some state numbers are better predictors than others.
The list, you may recall, is here:
The data’s complete now, based entirely on the stats published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). I’ve downloaded the PDFs in the event that the current government decides to erase the data, which I can imagine they could do, since they’ve already done it with climate research and other inconvenient truths. Continue reading “Election 2018: Analysis Complete. Now what? (Part 2)”
I’m almost done compiling data on the senate races from 2006-2016. This stuff takes time because I’m using at least three sources (including the Federal Election Commission) and scouring them for the data is a royal PITA.
When I’m done, there’ll be a better list of who to direct those precious support dollars, assuming you want a blue candidate to win.That’s 10 years’ worth of data, and it’s proving to be relatively reliable. If I have the vote counts for all the republicans and all the democrats who voted in the primary, regardless of their candidate selection, I can predict the outcome of the general, with an error ratio of around 4. Continue reading “Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1)”
It all starts and ends with this:
This is what we face. Not just voter obstruction, but a total divorce from reality. The end of our federal government as we have known it, and maybe the end of the US as an entity. Continue reading “Aftermath (Part 6): The Enemy of the Good…”