Category: Statistics

Out of the frying pan…

Out of the frying pan…

Post-it notes on a glass door that say "Sorry we are closed" and "COVID-19"
Photo by Anastasiia Chepinska on Unsplash

So way back when, 20 months ago, shortly after the New American Era began, I wrote this: Aftermath (Part 11): It took six years…. Ten days later, I wrote this: Endarkenment (Part 5).

Today, as the country gets ready to lock down again, for what’s the fourth wave in a viral pandemic that carries the -19 identifier because it started IN 2019, we are seeing record numbers of infections, in children and adults, the vast majority of whom haven’t been vaccinated.

In the second post, I ended with the following flat statement:

Talk to me six months from now. If all of this is a distant, awful memory, I will thank you for reminding me that it wasn’t as bad as I thought it could be.

And here we are. Continue reading “Out of the frying pan…”

Zero…

Zero…

Four years ago today I had fear in the pit of my stomach. I had spent the entire year watching people who I thought were sensible dissolve into a puddle of insanity over almost 40 years of dedicated Republican propaganda prepare to vote away our Democracy. Continue reading “Zero…”

Well, there it is…

Well, there it is…

The New York Times has been sending out so-called impeachment briefings every morning and evening. Tonight was no exception. At the end of the message they asked if there was anything we want to see.

I responded. Continue reading “Well, there it is…”

Deceptive advertising…

Deceptive advertising…

As I’ve said previously, I’m gearing up for this year’s Primaries. Just to get my feet wet, I went to the stats for Arizona’s 8th District, a pre-Primary special election to replace Congressman Trent Franks. Continue reading “Deceptive advertising…”

Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1)

Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1)

I’m almost done compiling data on the senate races from 2006-2016. This stuff takes time because I’m using at least three sources (including the Federal Election Commission) and scouring them for the data is a royal PITA.

When I’m done, there’ll be a better list of who to direct those precious support dollars, assuming you want a blue candidate to win.That’s 10 years’ worth of data, and it’s proving to be relatively reliable. If I have the vote counts for all the republicans and all the democrats who voted in the primary, regardless of their candidate selection, I can predict the outcome of the general, with an error ratio of around 4. Continue reading “Election 2018: The End of Everything (Part 1)”

Storm’s here (Part Two)…

Storm’s here (Part Two)…

And from here on out, I’m live on Facebook, and will post updates below.


I’m devoting all my time right now to updating my spreadsheet.

When I’ve finished, I’ll post my results to 270towin.com, but there’s no point in putting the link up now.

ETA: 1:43am EST – http://www.270towin.com/maps/36n0N (My best guess as of this moment.)

Folks, I don’t think I can watch anymore. I’m going to go to bed and try to sleep.

I just want people to remember, when they look back at tonight, that the polls this year were WORTHLESS. They lied, just the way I said they would.

They didn’t take into account independents, and that’s where they went wrong. The pundits won’t admit this fault in the logic, but that’s where it lies.

And for the record, yes, Jill Stein did have an effect. She cost us Pennsylvania, if it comes down to the wire in that state.


Continue reading “Storm’s here (Part Two)…”

What if I’m right?

What if I’m right?

In the last few weeks, Nate Silver’s site fivethirtyeight.com has shifted stance from Hillary Clinton Will Win to Maybe We Ought To Worry After All.

You can see the progression here (since the beginning of August):

What I find most disturbing is that his map of the US is much less ambiguous than mine, and mine called it for Trump back in June, based on the numbers I saw coming out of the primaries. I’ve had people blowing me off consistently, with placating comments about how primary numbers can’t predict outcomes. Well, maybe that’s true, but I said it would be a close race back then, and I am sticking to those guns today. Continue reading “What if I’m right?”

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