In 1980 I was still too young to vote, but I lived through the damage Reagan and Bush did during their twelve years at the helm of the US. They lied about the economy and tossed out regulations we’re only now coming to realize were important and not just a drag on business. People felt justified in voting against Carter because of a variety of things, including the “Iranian crisis” that extended through much of Carter’s last year in office, only to come to grips with Iran Scam in the late end of Bush’s sole term.
I understand that as conspiracy theories go, the October Surprise is unproven and fairly damning, but as I hasten to remind people, Bush Sr. was involved in the CIA prior to his run for the Presidency that led to being selected as Reagan’s running mate that year, and I have absolutely no trouble at all believing that he was in it up to his ears. I believe the truth will out once we finally have access to Reagan’s papers, starting in 2020 (if we’re lucky and the GOP don’t find a way to bury the truth down further).
Allegations that the Reagan administration negotiated a delay in the release of the hostages until after the 1980 presidential election have been numerous but unproven. Gary Sick, principal White House aide for Iran and the Persian Gulf on the Carter administration’s National Security Council, claimed in his book October Surprise: America’s Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan that CIA Director William Casey and possibly Vice President George H. W. Bush went to Paris to negotiate such a delay. Many others have made the same allegations.
I celebrated when we finally got a Democrat in the White House in 1992, though he wasn’t the one I voted for in the primary. I am grateful that we have one again, who’s worked really damn hard to undo a lot of the damage the Bush family has done to our country in the last 36 years.
We CANNOT afford to let this election slide based on polling statistics. A portion of our country is on the brink of recognizing and celebrating our diversity at precisely the same time as people in other portions are looking for people to blame, to vilify, to terrorize into believing that Hillary Clinton is the very devil.
I am asking a different question. It’s the same question I’ve asked since the end of the Primaries.
What if the polls aren’t telling the whole story? What if people who have the opportunity to vote choose not to exercise their right? What if they try but are prevented because the GOP is too scared to let Democrats back into power again?
What if the GOP knows that a Democratic majority in the House and Senate would spell an end to witch hunts and allow for forward progress because they can no longer obstruct change, and they are doing their best to turn the country toward fascism?
What if the true separation between Trump and Clinton comes down to too few votes in too many battleground states?
Can you really trust polls to tell you the truth? Their scope is limited, by definition, to the people they reach, and there’s no guarantee that those people will answer truthfully. Things can change (like they did for Jimmy Carter) in a matter of days. Can you say with confidence that the numbers on fivethirtyeight.com are in sufficient quantity that they’re reliable? What if the predictions of a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton are wrong?